What if AI capex super-cycle lifts industrial and electrical-equipment earnings?
Datacenter, grid and reshoring capex fills order books at electrical-equipment and automation suppliers, re-rating GE Vernova, Eaton and Rockwell on multi-year backlog; the capex boom feeds through to industrial-labor demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Datacenter, grid and reshoring capex fills order books at electrical-equipment and automation suppliers, re-rating GE Vernova, Eaton and Rockwell on multi-year backlog; the capex boom feeds through to industrial-labor demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist -2.93–+6.76% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.91–+3.73% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -6.49–+4.25% · other way -5.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.13–+2.01% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.34–+1.03% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.12–+2.79% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.09–+1.25% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.43–+1.13% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -19.23–+8.87% · other way -7.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.37–+0.66% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.07–+22.36% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.34–+2.58% · other way -4.65% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.23–+0.5% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 12 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +21.0% · 5d +0.8% | 81% | 10 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.9% · 5d -11.8% | 88% | 8 | 0.55 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.6% | 81% | 10 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.4% | 81% | 10 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 81% | 10 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +3bp | 76% | 12 | 0.40 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -1.5% | 74% | 11 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 74% | 11 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -0.4% | 76% | 10 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 10 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 68% | 12 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +2.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 10 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -6.3% | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 10 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |