What if AI-related capex mean-reverts, removing a key US GDP growth pillar?
AI-related capex, which propped up US GDP growth, mean-reverts as build-out stalls, removing a key growth pillar and revealing soft underlying demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. AI-related capex, which propped up US GDP growth, mean-reverts as build-out stalls, removing a key growth pillar and revealing soft underlying demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.78–+1.2% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.93–+2.59% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -10.82–+1.38% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.43–+1.47% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.58–+0.4% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.83–+0.75% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.65–-0.27% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -9.55–+2.16% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.19–+1.56% · other way -2.93% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.16–+1.28% · other way +3.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.79–+0.62% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.92–+0.97% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.94–+1.49% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -5.8% | 73% | 37 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.4% | 71% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.9% | 69% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -5.0% | 66% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |