What if AI datacenters hit 100GW?
Hyperscaler AI buildout pushes global datacenter demand toward 100GW, straining grids and making power — not chips — the binding constraint on compute.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Hyperscaler AI buildout pushes global datacenter demand toward 100GW, straining grids and making power — not chips — the binding constraint on compute. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.1% hist +0.22–+4.34% · other way -0.68% (n=10) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist +0.65–+1.61% · other way +0.98% (n=10) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -3.05–+4.36% · other way +1.73% (n=10) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.83–+1.53% · other way -0.01% (n=10) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.16–+1.65% · other way -1.48% (n=10) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.57–+0.98% · other way -0.13% (n=10) |
| 7 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.32–+1.33% · other way +4.71% (n=10) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.34–+1.39% · other way -5.77% (n=10) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.29–+0.62% · other way -0.71% (n=10) |
| 10 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.2–+1.82% · other way -3.11% (n=10) |
| 11 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.19–+0.49% · other way -2.24% (n=10) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.26–+0.56% · other way -0.41% (n=10) |
| 13 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.43–+1.27% · other way +3.32% (n=10) |
| 14 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.19–+0.72% · other way +3.98% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +1.2% | 77% | 13 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +18.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 76% | 12 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.5% | 79% | 12 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.6% | 79% | 12 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.7% | 72% | 12 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.1% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 12 | 0.32 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 71% | 13 | 0.31 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 12 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 13 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 12 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 13 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -5.8% | 61% | 13 | 0.17 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 13 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 13 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |