What if AI-driven margin expansion offsets wage and input inflation?
Productivity gains from AI adoption let firms expand margins despite sticky wage and input costs, a disinflationary-growth mix that supports equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Productivity gains from AI adoption let firms expand margins despite sticky wage and input costs, a disinflationary-growth mix that supports equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.19–+0.67% · other way -9.01% (n=9) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.45–+23.22% · other way +3.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.61–+2.31% · other way -7.76% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.59–+1.93% · other way -3.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.04–+0.39% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.86–+4.3% · other way -4.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.14–+0.93% · other way +3.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.07% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.04–+0.76% · other way +3.44% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.66% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.17% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.14–+1.59% · other way -5.19% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.32–+0.81% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.7% | 74% | 40 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 76% | 40 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.3% | 67% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +20.4% · 5d +1.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +0bp | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.2% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | · |