What if AI-efficiency breakthrough deflates the data-center real-estate bid?
A step-change in model efficiency sharply lowers compute-per-task, undercutting data-center demand forecasts and the leasing pipeline; the demand reset de-rates data-center REITs and power names tied to the AI build-out.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A step-change in model efficiency sharply lowers compute-per-task, undercutting data-center demand forecasts and the leasing pipeline; the demand reset de-rates data-center REITs and power names tied to the AI build-out. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.