What if a new law forces 180-day notice for AI-driven layoffs?
A 180-day WARN/severance mandate for AI layoffs slows adoption and front-loads restructuring charges, de-rating AI-capex names while cushioning near-term consumption. Rhymes with stricter EU collective-redundancy regimes that raised the cost and slowed the pace of headcount cuts. Skeptic's note: this delays rather than prevents displacement — the semi-selloff leg is a sentiment overshoot, not a durable demand cut to silicon.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. New law forces 180-day WARN notice and severance for AI-driven layoffs, slowing adoption and front-loading restructuring charges. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Job displacement ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.52–+0.67% · other way +1.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.62–-0.19% · other way +1.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.81–+0.72% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.47–+0.48% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.61–+1.58% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–-0.12% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -15.86–+5.24% · other way -6.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.88–+0.97% · other way -2.91% (n=12) |
| 10 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.78–+1.04% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.31–-0.04% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.61–+8.28% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -9.14–+5.3% · other way +1.7% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.21–+1.82% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's long on SOL/ETH: every negative analogue is an AI-capex or Nvidia-guidance window where crypto traded as a beta-NDX risk proxy, not this labor-law channel — regime-contaminated history.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.5% · 5d -5.2% | 91% | 10 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.0% | 75% | 11 | 0.39 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.4% · 5d -4.3% | 71% | 11 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 75% | 11 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -1bp | 67% | 11 | 0.26 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -4.8% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 11 | 0.25 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.6% | 67% | 11 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 67% | 11 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.1% | 62% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 54% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
180-day WARN-for-AI-layoff law possible in blue states but federal/major adoption slow. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.