What if a power shortage capped the AI boom?
A datacenter power-shortage ceiling caps AI-growth expectations and bids power/uranium/grid names even as it nicks the chip bellwether — the scarce input shifts from GPUs to megawatts. No exact analogue; the closest rhyme is the 2024 uranium/Cameco run and nuclear-PPA deals (Microsoft-Constellation) that re-rated power on AI-load forecasts. Forward angle: this is a relative-value trade — long power/uranium versus the marginal chip name — rather than an outright semis short, since compute demand stays intact behind the grid bottleneck.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A datacenter power-shortage crunch caps AI-growth expectations and bids power/uranium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.