What if AI productivity J-curve disappoints, capex outruns realized gains?
Firms find reorganizing workflows around AI is slow and costly, so realized productivity lags the capex bill for years; the gap forces guidance resets and a de-rating across AI-levered mega-caps.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Firms find reorganizing workflows around AI is slow and costly, so realized productivity lags the capex bill for years; the gap forces guidance resets and a de-rating across AI-levered mega-caps. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Robotics productivity ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.6–+0.28% · other way +1.42% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.33–+1.89% · other way +1.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.2–+0.21% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.85–+0.07% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.66–-0.34% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.8–-0.12% · other way -2.91% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.26–+0.51% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.64–+0.16% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -16.0–+2.7% · other way -6.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -4.16–+1.94% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.43–-0.25% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.07–+3.16% · other way +18.8% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.73–+0.42% · other way -2.38% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.2% · 5d -5.6% | 93% | 13 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -5.2% | 71% | 18 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 25 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d +4.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 25 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.8% | 57% | 20 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 58% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.0% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.2% | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 54% | 25 | 0.06 | · |