What if AI software disappointment: ROI shortfall stalls SaaS spend?
Enterprises report weak return on AI software pilots and pause incremental spend, undercutting the high-growth SaaS thesis. The demand air-pocket de-rates the group and trims risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Enterprises report weak return on AI software pilots and pause incremental spend, undercutting the high-growth SaaS thesis. The demand air-pocket de-rates the group and trims risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.8–+3.67% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.88–+0.16% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.95–+0.8% |
| 4 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.85–+0.73% |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.5–+0.21% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -16.72–-0.36% |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.55–+13.99% |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.75–+0.52% |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.81–+0.73% |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.89–+0.91% |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.78–+2.67% |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.17–+1.74% |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–-0.09% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.1% · 5d -4.5% | 91% | 19 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +12.9% · 5d +1.2% | 62% | 27 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.5% | 57% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 24 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 28 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 26 | 0.06 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.1% | 52% | 28 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 25 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.5% | 52% | 28 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 27 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |