What if AI-vs-Bitcoin power competition squeezes miner economics?
Surging AI data-center demand outbids miners for cheap power and grid capacity, raising mining costs and forcing rig migration or shutdowns.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Surging AI data-center demand outbids miners for cheap power and grid capacity, raising mining costs and forcing rig migration or shutdowns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · AI capex ▲ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -4.17–+4.15% · other way -5.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.3% hist -12.62–+1.78% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -11.19–+0.69% · other way -15.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -7.98–+1.07% · other way -3.27% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.52–+1.39% · other way +6.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.27–+1.5% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.03–+0.84% · other way +1.46% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.41–+0.69% · other way +8.9% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.26–+1.19% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.01–+0.27% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.05–+0.53% · other way +6.59% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.79–+2.31% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.4–+1.15% · other way +2.11% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.5% · 5d -9.1% | 78% | 34 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.7% | 77% | 40 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -8.0% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -5.5% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |