What if allies are forced to match a US chipmaking-tool export ban?
A MATCH-Act DUV-immersion ban binding the Netherlands and Japan is a severe trade-tension escalation: ASML loses its largest growth market, TSMC/semis crater, yuan and Alibaba weaken. Direct analogue is the 2023 Dutch ASML DUV restrictions that already cut China sales. Transmission: ASML is the Dutch choke point and China was ~40-50% of DUV revenue — binding allies removes the backfill. Forward angle: accelerates Chinese SMIC self-sufficiency, the very outcome controls aim to prevent.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. MATCH Act passes, imposing a country-wide DUV-immersion export ban and binding the Netherlands and Japan to match it. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.