What if an ASML export ban escalated the chip war?
An EUV/ASML export-ban escalation hits the equipment chain directly: ASML loses China service/sales while TSMC and fabless names price tighter tool availability, so the supply-shock framing dominates and the Nasdaq high-beta sleeve leads down. Rhymes with the 2023 Dutch DUV curbs and the Oct-2024 ASML bookings-miss crash that gapped the stock ~16%. Transmission: China is ~20-30% of ASML's backlog, so retaliation risk (rare-earths) is the real tail — the first-order China-export hit is already partly in the price.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An EUV/ASML export ban escalates the chip war and hits the equipment chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.46–-0.64% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.22–-0.3% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.96–-0.28% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.71–+0.99% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.06–-0.17% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.09–+0.58% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.12–+1.7% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.0–+0.45% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.94–+0.72% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.53–-0.24% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.3–+0.89% · other way -3.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.49–-0.26% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.06% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.69–+1.3% · other way -2.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's LONG on DXY: history's -1% draws on 2025 tariff/gold-squeeze windows where the dollar fell on US-led fears; an EUV ban choking China is a dollar-supportive risk-off vector.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -5.8% | 76% | 38 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.7% | 67% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
EUV already curbed to China; further equipment-chain escalation plausible near-term. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.