What if an ASML export ban escalated the chip war?
An EUV/ASML export-ban escalation hits the equipment chain directly: ASML loses China service/sales while TSMC and fabless names price tighter tool availability, so the supply-shock framing dominates and the Nasdaq high-beta sleeve leads down. Rhymes with the 2023 Dutch DUV curbs and the Oct-2024 ASML bookings-miss crash that gapped the stock ~16%. Transmission: China is ~20-30% of ASML's backlog, so retaliation risk (rare-earths) is the real tail — the first-order China-export hit is already partly in the price.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An EUV/ASML export ban escalates the chip war and hits the equipment chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.