What if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?
A Sonangol price slump breaching Angola's oil-backed China loan covenants forces collateral top-ups (more barrels pledged to Beijing), pressuring KZ eurobonds and the kwanza — not a 4% global Brent crash. Rhymes with Angola's 2015-16 oil-loan squeeze and the 2020 IMF rescue. China (CDB/Exim) is the dominant creditor and offtaker; the forward risk is that prepaid-oil structures mean default transmits as physical-barrel diversion, not a price signal.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A Sonangol price slump breaches Angola's oil-backed China loan covenants, forcing emergency collateral top-ups. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -4.2% hist -9.73–-0.84% · other way +1.98% (n=6) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -3.5% hist -7.96–+0.07% · other way -2.04% (n=7) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -3.23–-0.04% · other way +0.33% (n=7) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist -1.34–+5.5% · other way +28.59% (n=6) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.35–-0.53% · other way +1.11% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.99–-0.08% · other way -1.2% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.57–+4.28% · other way +19.68% (n=6) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.08–+0.46% · other way -0.96% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.01–+0.87% · other way -1.68% (n=7) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.08–+1.22% · other way -1.61% (n=7) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -7bp hist -18.97–+2.58% · other way +19.8% (n=10) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -20.32–+3.83% · other way +16.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.89–+3.61% · other way +1.57% (n=3) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.66–+0.05% · other way +0.47% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on DAL/XHB; history's negative reads come from demand-destruction windows (2020 Saudi-Russia war, COVID), but an Angola supply-side covenant breach lowers fuel costs, not travel demand.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -2.9% | 87% | 33 | 0.65 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.1% | 77% | 36 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -5.4% | 72% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -2bp | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -13.3% | 70% | 15 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -16bp · 5d -4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -7.2% | 64% | 16 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +1.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Oil-backed China loans have collateral buffers; covenant-breach top-ups rare absent a sharp 6mo Brent crash. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.