What if collapsing oil revenue breaches Angola's China loan covenants?
A Sonangol price slump breaching Angola's oil-backed China loan covenants forces collateral top-ups (more barrels pledged to Beijing), pressuring KZ eurobonds and the kwanza — not a 4% global Brent crash. Rhymes with Angola's 2015-16 oil-loan squeeze and the 2020 IMF rescue. China (CDB/Exim) is the dominant creditor and offtaker; the forward risk is that prepaid-oil structures mean default transmits as physical-barrel diversion, not a price signal.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A Sonangol price slump breaches Angola's oil-backed China loan covenants, forcing emergency collateral top-ups. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.