What if a water and aquifer crisis chokes farms and chip fabs?
A multi-year aquifer drawdown is a slow burn, not a tape-moving shock: the clean chain is grain belt water stress lifting Wheat and Corn, feeding food CPI and pressuring food-importing EM FX. Rhymes with the 2012 US Plains drought, which drove front-month corn to a then-record ~$8.40. Forward angle: chip-fab water risk (Taiwan 2021, Arizona) is a separate, slower equity story than the ag print and should not be conflated with it.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major water/aquifer crisis (US Southwest, India) disrupts agriculture and chip fabs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.