What if Argentina scraps the peso and adopts the dollar?
Full dollarization is risk-ON for Argentine assets: rally GD-bonds and ADRs (YPF, banks) on regime-credibility, tighter Argentine spreads, a LatAm sympathy bid. The template is Ecuador 2000 and El Salvador 2001 dollarization, which compressed sovereign risk and stabilized prices. But the cascade is built on a false macro premise — Argentina dollarizing has negligible effect on US Treasuries, gold, or DXY; those lines (30y -7bp, gold -2%, Nikkei analogues) are spurious. The local credit/equity rally is the only real trade.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Buenos Aires legislates full dollarization, scraps the peso, sparking a Latam-wide rally in Argentine ADRs and BCS bonds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · EM currencies ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.