What if drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest?
A La Nina drought halving Argentina's soybeans drains the world's top soymeal/oil exporter — the trade is long soybeans/soymeal and a crush-margin squeeze, with corn/wheat sympathy; the semis-water leg is immaterial. Rhymes with the 2017-18 Argentine drought that cut the crop ~30% and rallied soy/meal. Transmission: China (top soy buyer) leans harder on Brazil/US; Argentina loses critical FX-earning export tax revenue, pressuring the peso. Forward: thin Argentine reserves mean the FX/sovereign feedback loop is sharper than in past droughts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A severe La Nina drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest, draining the world's top soymeal exporter. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.62–+0.7% · other way -5.55% (n=9) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.24–+1.58% · other way +0.75% (n=9) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–+-0.0% · other way +1.31% (n=8) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.23–-0.12% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.34–+0.42% · other way -1.88% (n=9) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.12–+0.71% · other way +0.52% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.65–+0.45% · other way +0.21% (n=10) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.04% · other way -4.71% (n=10) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.7% · other way -0.09% (n=7) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.82–+0.77% · other way -7.79% (n=10) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+1.01% · other way +0.66% (n=10) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.83–+0.86% · other way -2.3% (n=9) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.51–+0.13% · other way -3.74% (n=10) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -2.7–+1.05% · other way -2.38% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -4.2% | 69% | 33 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.5% · 5d +0.8% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.5% | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.2% | 56% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 33 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.7% | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.05 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +1.2% | 44% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.3% | 47% | 33 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Argentina La Nina soy drought is a recurring base rate; halving harvest is severe-tail but plausible over 6-18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.