What if drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest?
A La Nina drought halving Argentina's soybeans drains the world's top soymeal/oil exporter — the trade is long soybeans/soymeal and a crush-margin squeeze, with corn/wheat sympathy; the semis-water leg is immaterial. Rhymes with the 2017-18 Argentine drought that cut the crop ~30% and rallied soy/meal. Transmission: China (top soy buyer) leans harder on Brazil/US; Argentina loses critical FX-earning export tax revenue, pressuring the peso. Forward: thin Argentine reserves mean the FX/sovereign feedback loop is sharper than in past droughts.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A severe La Nina drought halves Argentina's soybean harvest, draining the world's top soymeal exporter. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.