What if Argentine farmer export strike withholds soy and corn cargoes?
A tax-and-FX dispute triggers an Argentine farmer selling strike, withholding soy and corn from export channels and tightening near-term world supply.
25%
our model probability over 0–6 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
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◎ Empirically anchored 25%· 90% range 13–37%· 40 analogues · measured class inflation 94% in 6 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — inflation ≈5.6856/yr → 94% in 6 mo94%
Analyst prior · editorial share 29% of the class27%
Pooled · weight 87%26%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)26%
Published25%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A tax-and-FX dispute triggers an Argentine farmer selling strike, withholding soy and corn from export channels and tightening near-term world supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
Turkish liraTRY📈 chart
FX
▼ -0.4%
hist -3.62–+1.32% · other way -0.47% (n=12)
2
CornCORNon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▲ +0.3%
hist -1.5–+0.71% · other way -0.12% (n=12)
3
Indian rupeeINR📈 chart
FX
▼ -0.3%
hist -0.27–-0.06% · other way -0.1% (n=12)
4
Chinese yuanCNY📈 chart
FX
▼ -0.1%
hist -0.46–+0.1% · other way -0.7% (n=12)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Also moves (not yet on Hyperliquid): Turkish lira -0.4% · Indian rupee -0.3% · Chinese yuan -0.1%
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
August 2022 hot CPI 2022-09↗Powell's hawkish 'pain' speech at Jackson Hole 2022-08↗Turkish lira record low on rate cuts 2021-11↗February 2018 hot wage print triggers rate scare 2018-02↗Silver Thursday 1980-03↗Gold peaks at $850 1980-01↗1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock 1979-01↗Iranian Revolution oil shock 1978-12↗Iranian rial slides to a new record low 2025-12↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗Israel strikes Iran — Operation Rising Lion 2025-06↗H5N1 bird flu record US egg prices 2025-04↗China retaliates to Liberation Day: 34% tariffs + rare-earth controls 2025-04↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗Tesla shares crater on DOGE political backlash and Europe sales collapse 2025-03↗TSMC slumps as DeepSeek roils AI-chip demand assumptions 2025-02↗Micron's weak FQ2 guidance sparks a sharp December selloff 2024-12↗Nasdaq Composite first close above 20000 2024-12↗Henry Hub natural gas falls to an all-time inflation-adjusted low on record output 2024-11↗ASML bookings-miss crash 2024-10↗October 2024 Iranian ballistic-missile attack on Israel 2024-10↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗Nikkei 225 record single-day rebound 2024-08↗Nikkei 225 worst single-day crash since 1987 2024-08↗KOSPI biggest-ever point loss triggers circuit breaker 2024-08↗VIX third-highest spike on record 2024-08↗Intel's Q2 earnings trigger its worst single-day crash since 1974 2024-08↗Megacap AI-capex doubt selloff 2024-07↗Trump 'Taiwan should pay for defense' chip selloff 2024-07↗Homebuilders rally as cool June CPI fuels rate-cut bets 2024-07↗USD/JPY hits a 38-year high before a CPI-driven intervention 2024-07↗India's Modi loses single-party majority 2024-06↗Mexico's Sheinbaum landslide + supermajority scare 2024-06↗Hot January CPI delays Fed-cut hopes 2024-02↗Wagner Group mutiny against the Kremlin 2023-06↗Turkish lira hits record low after Erdogan re-election 2023-05↗First Republic Bank seized and sold to JPMorgan 2023-05↗Regional-bank panic deepens after Signature seizure 2023-03↗India Adani-Hindenburg rout 2023-01↗Solana craters toward $8 on FTX/Alameda overhang 2022-12↗