What if Argentina's peso collapses after Milei lifts capital controls?
Lifting the cepo and overshooting past 2000 is an Argentina-idiosyncratic event: short GD30/GD35 USD bonds and Argentine ADRs on deposit-flight fear, with little genuine US-Treasury spillover. The rhyme is the 2018 Macri float that ran the peso from ~20 to ~40 and forced a record IMF package. The cascade's premise is inverted — it treats Argentine stress as US-reserve-confidence POSITIVE (Treasuries rally, gold/BTC down, DXY up); a frontier FX blowup does not lift the dollar's reserve bid. Roots wrongly load dollar_confidence.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Milei lifts cepo controls, peso overshoots past 2000/USD, triggering deposit flight and GD30 bond selloff. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.