What if a sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian currencies and equities lower?
A sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian EM currencies and equities lower in a correlated risk-off, pressuring central banks across the region and tightening regional financial conditions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp yuan devaluation drags Asian EM currencies and equities lower in a correlated risk-off, pressuring central banks across the region and tightening regional financial conditions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · China growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.16–+1.07% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.05–-0.02% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -10.87–+3.49% · other way -4.51% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.09–+1.32% · other way +22.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–-0.07% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -12.92–+3.04% · other way +1.86% (n=11) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.0–+0.12% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.53–+0.94% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.87–+0.1% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.31–+0.43% · other way +1.06% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.59–+2.05% · other way +8.59% (n=11) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.07–+0.71% · other way -7.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.1–+1.06% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.7% · 5d -16.6% | 73% | 15 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -4.2% | 71% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -11.1% · 5d -10.7% | 72% | 18 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 27 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 26 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.0% | 63% | 25 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 26 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -5.0% | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 24 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |