What if Australian iron-ore receipts swing with the China property impulse?
Swings in China construction demand whipsaw Australian iron-ore export volumes and prices, driving the terms of trade and the Aussie dollar; a property-led demand drop pressures AUD and miner cash flows.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Swings in China construction demand whipsaw Australian iron-ore export volumes and prices, driving the terms of trade and the Aussie dollar; a property-led demand drop pressures AUD and miner cash flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.