Australia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Australia and its globally‑connected markets.
99 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
42%1–3 years
What if Lithium oversupply trough deepens, carbonate down 80% from peak?
38%1–3 years
What if Iron ore collapses to $50/t as China steel output peaks?
38%6–18 months
What if Spodumene glut forces Australian hard-rock mine suspensions?
37%6–18 months
What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
37%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
35%0–6 months
What if strikes shut down Australia's biggest LNG plants?
35%0–6 months
What if Super El Niño onset parches SE-Asia and Australian staples?
31%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown craters iron ore, copper and coal?
31%3–10 years
What if Allied rare-earth alliance pools refining outside China?
30%6–18 months
What if China stabilization bazooka revives property and lifts copper and AUD?
29%1–3 years
What if African spodumene wave from Zimbabwe and Mali floods the market?
29%3–10 years
What if China property-fiscal doom loop crushes iron ore, copper and AUD?
28%1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
28%6–18 months
What if Australian and New Caledonian nickel mines shut on the glut?
28%1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine program anchors a multi-decade naval industrial base?
27%6–18 months
What if El Niño slashes Australian wheat from record to drought crop?
26%6–18 months
What if Metals slump drags commodity currencies into FX stress?
26%0–6 months
What if Iron ore spikes on a Vale-and-Pilbara double supply scare?
26%1–3 years
What if Australia-Canada housing soft landing as rate cuts cushion buyers?
25%1–3 years
What if Commodity-currency boom as metals super-cycle lifts AUD and CLP?
24%1–3 years
What if Canada and Australia ban foreign homebuyers for good?
24%3–10 years
What if Western greenfield uranium mines erase the supply deficit?
24%6–18 months
What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
24%6–18 months
What if High-protein wheat abundance narrows milling-grade premiums?
23%6–18 months
What if Argentine brine ramp accelerates the lithium glut?
23%6–18 months
What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?
23%6–18 months
What if Australian locust plague ravages a recovering grain crop?
23%6–18 months
What if Negative IOD rains lift Australian wheat to a record crop?
22%6–18 months
What if Sydney's interest-only loans reset and force a sell-off?
22%6–18 months
What if a Chinese construction collapse sends iron ore below $70 per tonne?
22%6–18 months
What if Pilbara lithium discipline curtails output to defend price?
22%1–3 years
What if Australian uranium ban reversal opens new mine supply?
22%3–10 years
What if Australia's superannuation cushions its aging fiscal burden?
22%6–18 months
What if Australian mortgage rate-shock correction triggers bank-loss fears?
21%1–3 years
What if Quad maritime-security pact stabilizes Indo-Pacific sea lanes?
21%0–6 months
What if Indian Ocean Dipole flip floods East Africa's cropland?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing tips Australia into recession?
20%6–18 months
What if Australian iron-ore receipts swing with the China property impulse?
19%0–6 months
What if sticky inflation forces surprise back-to-back RBA hikes?
19%6–18 months
What if floods wreck Australia's wheat harvest?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese steel output contracts and sends iron ore from $120 toward $70 per tonne?
19%6–18 months
What if Australia suffers another Black-Summer-scale bushfire season?
19%1–3 years
What if Eastern Australia La Niña megaflood hits Queensland?
18%1–3 years
What if Anglosphere affordability snap: Australia and Canada correct?
17%6–18 months
What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
15%0–6 months
What if a cyclone wrecks Australia's biggest manganese mine?
15%1–3 years
What if Australian office values fall as Sydney and Melbourne vacancy climbs?
15%1–3 years
What if Australian Big Dry returns: El Niño cuts wheat exports?
14%6–18 months
What if record east-coast flooding concentrates insurer and bank losses in Australia?
13%1–3 years
What if a China industrial slowdown slashes thermal-coal imports and pressures exporters?
13%1–3 years
What if APRA finds Australian bank mortgages are concentrated in cyclone-prone regions?
13%6–18 months
What if Australian east-coast gas shortfall tightens Pacific LNG supply?
12%6–18 months
What if Australia's variable-rate mortgages transmit RBA hikes directly and sharply to households?
12%1–3 years
What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?
12%6–18 months
What if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?
12%1–3 years
What if extreme heat cuts dairy and livestock productivity across the US, Australia, and South Asia?
12%6–18 months
What if an Australian drought cuts wheat and canola exports, tightening global grain supply?
12%3–10 years
What if expanding insurance deserts freeze mortgage credit in exposed US and Australian markets?
12%0–6 months
What if Australian LNG strike at NWS/Gorgon spikes JKM and TTF?
11%6–18 months
What if iron ore and coking coal collapse together on a China steel contraction?
11%1–3 years
What if drought-driven soil subsidence cracks foundations across UK and Australian clay regions?
11%1–3 years
What if banks discover concentrated mortgage exposure in wildland-urban interface zones?
11%1–3 years
What if compounding disasters make insurance unaffordable across northern Australia?
10%6–18 months
What if unlisted Australian property funds face a redemption wave?
10%1–3 years
What if Australian home values decline 25% as record debt-to-income meets higher rates?
10%6–18 months
What if Australian borrowers rolling off 2% pandemic fixed loans face payment jumps of 50%?
10%6–18 months
What if economies dominated by variable-rate mortgages see a simultaneous consumption hit?
10%6–18 months
What if Australian housing affordability hits extreme lows as variable payments surge?
10%1–3 years
What if China's shift away from blast-furnace steel collapses coking-coal demand?
10%3–10 years
What if sustained insurer withdrawal from high-hazard regions triggers population decline?
10%1–3 years
What if insurer non-renewals in wildfire zones freeze mortgage lending where cover is unavailable?
9%1–3 years
What if a central bank's yield-curve-control peg breaks?
9%1–3 years
What if cost inflation and tight credit drive a wave of Australian developer failures?
9%1–3 years
What if Sydney and Melbourne prices fall 20-30% as investor demand unwinds?
9%1–3 years
What if house prices fall simultaneously across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia?
9%1–3 years
What if Australian house prices fall 30% under a sustained high cash rate?
9%0–6 months
What if the share of Australian households in mortgage stress surges sharply?
9%6–18 months
What if the RBA holds rates elevated and prolongs variable-rate pain for Australian households?
8%1–3 years
What if foot-and-mouth disease reaches Australia?
8%1–3 years
What if Australian major banks lift CRE provisions as office and construction loans sour?
8%1–3 years
What if Australian mortgage arrears rise as high-DTI borrowers exhaust savings buffers?
8%1–3 years
What if RMBS spreads blow out across the US, UK, and Australia at once?
8%6–18 months
What if high-LVR Australian borrowers enter negative equity after a 20% price fall?
8%6–18 months
What if Australian household consumption contracts as variable-rate mortgage payments surge?
8%6–18 months
What if mortgage resets across Canada, the UK, Australia, and the Nordics hit spending at once?
8%1–3 years
What if housing stress concentrates in floating-rate economies while fixed-rate markets lag?
8%0–6 months
What if a major LNG outage spikes TTF and JKM and strains winter gas balances?
8%1–3 years
What if a La Niña-driven flood and cyclone cluster pushes Australian insured losses to records?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian house prices fall 40% in a severe stress scenario?
7%1–3 years
What if a wave of Australian interest-only loans resets to principal-and-interest payments?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian mortgage insurers face elevated claims as high-LVR borrowers default?
7%1–3 years
What if mortgage insurers in Canada, Australia, and the US face surging synchronized claims?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian builder insolvencies rise as fixed-price contracts meet cost inflation?
7%6–18 months
What if Australia's fixed-to-variable mortgage rollover peak lifts payments by 40-60%?
6%1–3 years
What if persistent cost inflation drives more Australian construction failures?
6%1–3 years
What if Australia's big-four banks face capital strain in a 40% house price scenario?
6%1–3 years
What if investors retreat from Australian RMBS as arrears rise and raise funding costs?
5%6–18 months
What if a cyberattack knocks out a big-four Australian bank's digital channels?