Australia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Australia and its globally‑connected markets.
99 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
38%1–3 years
What if Iron ore collapses to $50/t as China steel output peaks?
37%6–18 months
What if RBA pivots to cuts as China-demand drag cools Australian prices?
35%0–6 months
What if strikes shut down Australia's biggest LNG plants?
35%0–6 months
What if Super El Niño onset parches SE-Asia and Australian staples?
34%6–18 months
What if China stabilization bazooka revives property and lifts copper and AUD?
34%1–3 years
What if Lithium oversupply trough deepens, carbonate down 80% from peak?
33%1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
32%3–10 years
What if Allied rare-earth alliance pools refining outside China?
31%6–18 months
What if a China slowdown craters iron ore, copper and coal?
30%1–3 years
What if African spodumene wave from Zimbabwe and Mali floods the market?
29%3–10 years
What if China property-fiscal doom loop crushes iron ore, copper and AUD?
28%1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine program anchors a multi-decade naval industrial base?
28%3–10 years
What if Western greenfield uranium mines erase the supply deficit?
26%1–3 years
What if Australia-Canada housing soft landing as rate cuts cushion buyers?
26%6–18 months
What if El Niño slashes Australian wheat from record to drought crop?
26%0–6 months
What if Iron ore spikes on a Vale-and-Pilbara double supply scare?
26%6–18 months
What if Metals slump drags commodity currencies into FX stress?
26%1–3 years
What if Quad critical-minerals pact counters China?
25%1–3 years
What if Commodity-currency boom as metals super-cycle lifts AUD and CLP?
25%6–18 months
What if Spodumene glut forces Australian hard-rock mine suspensions?
24%1–3 years
What if Canada and Australia ban foreign homebuyers for good?
24%6–18 months
What if High-protein wheat abundance narrows milling-grade premiums?
24%6–18 months
What if Record canola-and-rapeseed crop eases the global oilseed squeeze?
23%6–18 months
What if Australian locust plague ravages a recovering grain crop?
23%6–18 months
What if Negative IOD rains lift Australian wheat to a record crop?
22%3–10 years
What if Australia's superannuation cushions its aging fiscal burden?
22%6–18 months
What if Australian and New Caledonian nickel mines shut on the glut?
22%6–18 months
What if Australian mortgage rate-shock correction triggers bank-loss fears?
22%1–3 years
What if Australian uranium ban reversal opens new mine supply?
22%6–18 months
What if a Chinese construction collapse sends iron ore below $70 per tonne?
22%6–18 months
What if Sydney's interest-only loans reset and force a sell-off?
21%0–6 months
What if Indian Ocean Dipole flip floods East Africa's cropland?
21%6–18 months
What if Pilbara lithium discipline curtails output to defend price?
21%1–3 years
What if Quad maritime-security pact stabilizes Indo-Pacific sea lanes?
21%6–18 months
What if Western 'green nickel' tariff splits the LME into two prices?
20%6–18 months
What if Argentine brine ramp accelerates the lithium glut?
20%6–18 months
What if a China hard landing tips Australia into recession?
20%6–18 months
What if Australian iron-ore receipts swing with the China property impulse?
20%1–3 years
What if an overvalued housing market collapses in Canada or Australia?
19%6–18 months
What if Australia suffers another Black-Summer-scale bushfire season?
19%6–18 months
What if floods wreck Australia's wheat harvest?
19%6–18 months
What if Chinese steel output contracts and sends iron ore from $120 toward $70 per tonne?
19%0–6 months
What if sticky inflation forces surprise back-to-back RBA hikes?
18%1–3 years
What if Anglosphere affordability snap: Australia and Canada correct?
18%6–18 months
What if RBA holds hawkish as Australian inflation proves stubborn?
16%1–3 years
What if Eastern Australia La Niña megaflood hits Queensland?
15%1–3 years
What if Australian Big Dry returns: El Niño cuts wheat exports?
15%1–3 years
What if Australian office values fall as Sydney and Melbourne vacancy climbs?
14%6–18 months
What if record east-coast flooding concentrates insurer and bank losses in Australia?
14%0–6 months
What if a cyclone wrecks Australia's biggest manganese mine?
13%1–3 years
What if APRA finds Australian bank mortgages are concentrated in cyclone-prone regions?
13%6–18 months
What if Australian east-coast gas shortfall tightens Pacific LNG supply?
12%6–18 months
What if an Australian drought cuts wheat and canola exports, tightening global grain supply?
12%6–18 months
What if China repeats its 2020 trade coercion against another economy's exports?
12%6–18 months
What if Australia's variable-rate mortgages transmit RBA hikes directly and sharply to households?
12%0–6 months
What if Australian LNG strike at NWS/Gorgon spikes JKM and TTF?
12%1–3 years
What if a China industrial slowdown slashes thermal-coal imports and pressures exporters?
12%3–10 years
What if expanding insurance deserts freeze mortgage credit in exposed US and Australian markets?
12%1–3 years
What if extreme heat cuts dairy and livestock productivity across the US, Australia, and South Asia?
12%1–3 years
What if China restricts outbound tourism and study to coerce target economies?
11%1–3 years
What if compounding disasters make insurance unaffordable across northern Australia?
11%1–3 years
What if China's shift away from blast-furnace steel collapses coking-coal demand?
11%6–18 months
What if iron ore and coking coal collapse together on a China steel contraction?
11%1–3 years
What if drought-driven soil subsidence cracks foundations across UK and Australian clay regions?
11%1–3 years
What if banks discover concentrated mortgage exposure in wildland-urban interface zones?
10%6–18 months
What if Australian housing affordability hits extreme lows as variable payments surge?
10%6–18 months
What if Australian borrowers rolling off 2% pandemic fixed loans face payment jumps of 50%?
10%1–3 years
What if Australian home values decline 25% as record debt-to-income meets higher rates?
10%6–18 months
What if unlisted Australian property funds face a redemption wave?
10%6–18 months
What if economies dominated by variable-rate mortgages see a simultaneous consumption hit?
10%3–10 years
What if sustained insurer withdrawal from high-hazard regions triggers population decline?
10%1–3 years
What if insurer non-renewals in wildfire zones freeze mortgage lending where cover is unavailable?
9%1–3 years
What if Australian house prices fall 30% under a sustained high cash rate?
9%0–6 months
What if the share of Australian households in mortgage stress surges sharply?
9%6–18 months
What if the RBA holds rates elevated and prolongs variable-rate pain for Australian households?
9%1–3 years
What if a central bank's yield-curve-control peg breaks?
9%1–3 years
What if cost inflation and tight credit drive a wave of Australian developer failures?
9%1–3 years
What if Sydney and Melbourne prices fall 20-30% as investor demand unwinds?
9%1–3 years
What if house prices fall simultaneously across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia?
8%6–18 months
What if Australian household consumption contracts as variable-rate mortgage payments surge?
8%1–3 years
What if a La Niña-driven flood and cyclone cluster pushes Australian insured losses to records?
8%1–3 years
What if foot-and-mouth disease reaches Australia?
8%1–3 years
What if Australian mortgage arrears rise as high-DTI borrowers exhaust savings buffers?
8%6–18 months
What if high-LVR Australian borrowers enter negative equity after a 20% price fall?
8%1–3 years
What if Australian major banks lift CRE provisions as office and construction loans sour?
8%1–3 years
What if RMBS spreads blow out across the US, UK, and Australia at once?
8%1–3 years
What if housing stress concentrates in floating-rate economies while fixed-rate markets lag?
8%0–6 months
What if a major LNG outage spikes TTF and JKM and strains winter gas balances?
8%6–18 months
What if mortgage resets across Canada, the UK, Australia, and the Nordics hit spending at once?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian builder insolvencies rise as fixed-price contracts meet cost inflation?
7%6–18 months
What if Australia's fixed-to-variable mortgage rollover peak lifts payments by 40-60%?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian house prices fall 40% in a severe stress scenario?
7%1–3 years
What if a wave of Australian interest-only loans resets to principal-and-interest payments?
7%1–3 years
What if Australian mortgage insurers face elevated claims as high-LVR borrowers default?
7%1–3 years
What if mortgage insurers in Canada, Australia, and the US face surging synchronized claims?
6%1–3 years
What if Australia's big-four banks face capital strain in a 40% house price scenario?
6%1–3 years
What if persistent cost inflation drives more Australian construction failures?
6%1–3 years
What if investors retreat from Australian RMBS as arrears rise and raise funding costs?
5%6–18 months
What if a cyberattack knocks out a big-four Australian bank's digital channels?