What if strikes shut down Australia's biggest LNG plants?
Coordinated Western Australia LNG strikes (Gorgon/Wheatstone/NWS) choke North Asian winter supply, pulling JKM up and dragging TTF with it as buyers compete for swing cargoes; long JKM/TTF is the trade. Rhymes precisely with the Aug-2023 Chevron/Woodside Australian strike threat, which sent TTF up double-digits on headlines alone despite no crude impact. Transmission: Australia is a top supplier to Japan/Korea/China; forward angle: a 2026 winter strike into a tighter global balance (no new Qatari volumes yet) would re-couple European and Asian gas more violently than 2023.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Coordinated worker strikes shut major Western Australia LNG plants, choking North Asian winter supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.