What if African spodumene wave from Zimbabwe and Mali floods the market?
New Chinese-backed hard-rock mines in Zimbabwe and Mali add fresh concentrate tonnage, extending the lithium oversupply and pressuring marginal Australian and Brazilian producers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. New Chinese-backed hard-rock mines in Zimbabwe and Mali add fresh concentrate tonnage, extending the lithium oversupply and pressuring marginal Australian and Brazilian producers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.98–+0.26% · other way -10.05% (n=5) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.13–+0.73% · other way -9.74% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.9–+0.79% · other way -12.08% (n=5) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.25–+0.33% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.93–+0.41% · other way -11.47% (n=5) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.63–+0.3% · other way -7.77% (n=2) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.95–+6.28% · other way -4.84% (n=5) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.41–+0.03% · other way -0.81% (n=2) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.34–+0.58% · other way -4.41% (n=5) |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.48–+0.36% · other way +91.02% (n=5) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.12% · other way -1.21% (n=6) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.09–+1.51% · other way -0.97% (n=2) |
| 14 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.88–+0.26% · other way -1.16% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.1% | 73% | 23 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.1% | 71% | 23 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 23 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 23 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.18 | · |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 33 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.7% | 54% | 23 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.2% | 53% | 25 | 0.05 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -8.0% ↺ fades | 38% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |