What if Automation-driven labor surplus reopens disinflation in services?
Broad automation creates measurable labor slack in services, easing wage pressure and reopening services disinflation; softer unit labor costs support margins and a soft-landing narrative even as displacement rises.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Broad automation creates measurable labor slack in services, easing wage pressure and reopening services disinflation; softer unit labor costs support margins and a soft-landing narrative even as displacement rises. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -22.6–+6.41% · other way -10.4% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.92–+1.75% · other way -10.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.34% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.69–+5.34% · other way +8.04% (n=12) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -10.22–+12.03% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.39–+0.53% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -10.95–+19.48% · other way -4.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -20.2% · 5d -10.0% | 100% | 8 | 0.69 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +20bp · 5d +5bp | 74% | 11 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 74% | 11 | 0.37 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 10 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +2bp | 61% | 11 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 10 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 9 | 0.04 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -5.9% | 52% | 10 | 0.03 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 10 | 0.03 | · |