What if BCB forced to hike again as Brazil inflation re-accelerates?
Resurgent services inflation forces the Brazilian central bank to reverse course and hike, tightening conditions and pressuring growth-sensitive assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Resurgent services inflation forces the Brazilian central bank to reverse course and hike, tightening conditions and pressuring growth-sensitive assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.07–+2.97% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.21% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -5.19–+4.37% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.48–+0.54% · other way +0.67% (n=9) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.99–+3.37% · other way +10.12% (n=7) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.23% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -8.96–+4.74% · other way +0.35% (n=8) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.41–-0.21% · other way -0.66% (n=9) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.02–+2.75% · other way -5.77% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.82–+1.44% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -5.11–+19.93% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -8.23–+18.17% · other way +15.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.43–+1.15% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 17 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -7.1% | 88% | 11 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 75% | 11 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.4% | 79% | 11 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -9.3% | 75% | 9 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +4bp | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 11 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 11 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 68% | 10 | 0.24 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 11 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 11 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |