What if Deloitte automates audit and tax with AI agents?
Deloitte AI audit/tax cutting graduate intake threatens the CPA pipeline and trims entry-level white-collar demand, with a light AI-silicon bid. Rhymes with prior audit-analytics automation (KPMG Clara, 2017) that reshaped staffing without macro effect. Forward angle: the second-order risk is CPA-supply scarcity inflating audit fees later — a contrarian inflation-not-deflation angle the disinflationary cascade misses.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Deloitte deploys AI agents for full audit and tax prep, cutting graduate intake and triggering CPA-pipeline collapse fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Job displacement ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.