What if the US restricts gene-synthesis and AI protein-design tools?
Restricting DNA-synthesis hardware and AI protein-design models fragments pharma/biotech R&D, not chips - the real names are Twist Bioscience, gene-synthesis vendors and AI-bio platforms, so mapping this to TSMC/Nvidia/ASML is a category error. No clean analogue; closest is the nascent BIS biotech/Tencent-Wuxi listing pressure. The 1-3yr horizon and biotech locus mean equity impact is diffuse; the forward angle is dual-use bio controls are new regulatory terrain, so the semiconductor_risk root is misapplied.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. US restricts DNA-synthesis hardware and AI protein-design models, fragmenting global pharma R&D supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.