What if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes a structural fiscal cloud (good)?
A phased, bipartisan entitlement reform restores solvency without a demand shock; the long-end term premium eases and household confidence improves as a structural fiscal overhang is removed.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A phased, bipartisan entitlement reform restores solvency without a demand shock; the long-end term premium eases and household confidence improves as a structural fiscal overhang is removed. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -5.56–+12.07% · other way +7.69% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.02–+0.85% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.1–+7.02% · other way -4.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.04–+0.73% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.63–+6.91% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.92–+2.69% · other way -4.93% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.02–+0.55% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.28–+0.67% · other way +5.51% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.0–+2.85% · other way +6.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.48–+2.19% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.91–+10.13% · other way +3.74% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -2.67–+5.67% · other way +5.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.47–+0.31% · other way +1.76% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -6.8% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |