What if a snowless winter kills Black Sea wheat?
A snowless winter exposing Black Sea winter wheat to frost guts next season's crop — long wheat with new-crop deferreds leading; the climate root's semis-water spillover is negligible. Rhymes with winterkill scares in the 2012 Russian/Ukrainian belt that lifted wheat on kill-rate fears. Transmission: Egypt/Turkey/North Africa import bills rise; EM FX softens. Forward: the damage is uncertain until spring green-up, so this trades as a persistent risk premium in deferred contracts rather than a single spike — own optionality, not flat price.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. An open, snowless winter exposes Ukrainian and Russian winter wheat to deep frost, gutting next season's crop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.