Ukraine — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Ukraine and its globally‑connected markets.
75 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
50%1–3 years
What if Munitions replenishment drives a 155mm and missile super-cycle?
41%1–3 years
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
41%6–18 months
What if Mediator fatigue stalls the Ukraine peace process?
39%1–3 years
What if Reconstruction boom lifts CEE and the euro?
39%3–10 years
What if Central Asia pivots westward post-ceasefire?
37%1–3 years
What if Eurasian de-escalation revives global risk appetite?
37%1–3 years
What if Drone and counter-UAS spending mints new defense-tech winners?
36%6–18 months
What if Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records?
35%0–6 months
What if war takes Ukraine's farmland out of production?
35%0–6 months
What if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?
34%1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
30%0–6 months
What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?
29%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
29%1–3 years
What if Ukraine reconstruction boom lifts EU industrials and EUR?
28%6–18 months
What if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?
28%6–18 months
What if Ukraine grain output rebound restores Black Sea export flows?
27%1–3 years
What if Poland reconstruction hub status lifts the zloty?
27%0–6 months
What if Ukraine planted-area collapse cuts the global corn surplus?
26%1–3 years
What if Black Sea bumper crop: Russian wheat floods world market?
25%6–18 months
What if Black Sea export ceiling diverts cargoes and spikes freight?
25%6–18 months
What if Defense valuation reset as peace-dividend narrative gains traction?
24%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%6–18 months
What if Record CIS spring-wheat crop adds cheap Black Sea supply?
23%0–6 months
What if Black Sea sunflower-oil shortfall spikes the vegoil complex?
22%1–3 years
What if Ukraine reconstruction lifts the whole CEE complex?
22%0–6 months
What if Grain-corridor breakdown re-spikes wheat and import-FX stress?
21%6–18 months
What if US aid cutoff opens a 2027 funding cliff?
21%0–6 months
What if Kazakh-and-Ukraine spring-wheat drought tightens CIS supply?
20%6–18 months
What if a snowless winter kills Black Sea wheat?
20%6–18 months
What if Europe backfills the US aid gap for Kyiv?
20%1–3 years
What if Ukraine EU-accession talks advance after truce?
20%1–3 years
What if Ukraine reconstruction and reform anchor recovery boom (good)?
20%1–3 years
What if Returnee-driven labor revival accelerates Ukraine rebuild (good)?
19%6–18 months
What if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?
19%0–6 months
What if Polish farmer-and-trucker blockade snarls EU trade?
19%1–3 years
What if EU enlargement momentum re-rates the CEE periphery?
18%6–18 months
What if Sunflower-oil exports normalize, oilseeds slide?
18%6–18 months
What if German fiscal bazooka funds Ukraine and rearmament?
18%6–18 months
What if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?
18%6–18 months
What if Loss of Russian transit via Ukraine tightens European TTF?
17%6–18 months
What if a Black Sea drought spikes global wheat prices?
17%1–3 years
What if Ukraine's drone-industrial complex scales exports?
17%1–3 years
What if European troops deploy as a ceasefire tripwire?
17%1–3 years
What if Western reconstruction guarantees de-risk Ukraine bonds?
16%0–6 months
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?
16%6–18 months
What if a renewed Black Sea blockade spikes Chicago wheat above $12 per bushel?
16%0–6 months
What if Black Sea grain corridor fully reopens?
16%6–18 months
What if Front collapses at Pokrovsk after aid lapse?
16%6–18 months
What if POW-and-children exchange thaws negotiations?
16%6–18 months
What if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?
16%6–18 months
What if Russia full gas cutoff via Ukraine and TurkStream?
15%1–3 years
What if Ukraine transit deal keeps some Russian gas flowing?
14%6–18 months
What if Bunds rally as a haven on eastern-flank escalation?
14%6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
14%6–18 months
What if Multi-front Eurasian escalation triggers global risk-off?
13%1–3 years
What if China and Japan restrict photoresists and neon gas essential to chip lithography?
13%0–6 months
What if Ukraine grid near-collapse drives EU power rationing?
13%6–18 months
What if Transnistria flare-up reopens the Moldova front?
13%6–18 months
What if US-Europe rift over Ukraine fractures NATO?
12%6–18 months
What if Corn jumps as Ukraine planted area collapses?
12%0–6 months
What if Mass missile barrage tests Ukraine air defenses?
12%6–18 months
What if Ukraine debt restructuring stalls amid the war?
11%6–18 months
What if the Black Sea grain corridor collapses again and strands Ukrainian exports?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuke in Ukraine?
10%0–6 months
What if Wheat gaps lower on a surprise corridor deal?
9%1–3 years
What if prolonged conflict structurally cuts Ukraine's grain export capacity?
9%6–18 months
What if renewed Black Sea disruption removes Ukrainian sunflower oil and spikes vegetable-oil prices?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russian fertilizer-export curb and a Ukrainian grain-corridor collapse hit simultaneously?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russia-NATO incident raises European war-risk premia and energy prices?
8%6–18 months
What if escalation near Poland's border triggers a sharp zloty sell-off and capital outflows?
8%6–18 months
What if Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe and forces full LNG pricing?
8%1–3 years
What if disruption to the CPC pipeline removes 1.5 million barrels per day of Kazakh crude?
7%1–3 years
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
7%0–6 months
What if a chip-grade neon gas shortage halts lithography?
6%0–6 months
What if Russia-NATO escalation spikes Brent above $130 and lifts European gas alongside it?