Russia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Russia and its globally‑connected markets.
218 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
51%6–18 months
What if Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprint?
49%0–6 months
What if drone strikes cripple a fifth of Russia's refining?
46%3–10 years
What if Middle Corridor scales as a Russia-bypass artery?
45%6–18 months
What if EU bans Russian LNG, JKM and TTF tighten?
45%3–10 years
What if EU energy independence from Russia is completed?
43%3–10 years
What if Comprehensive sanctions relief reopens Russia to trade?
42%1–3 years
What if US LNG glut offsets the Russian-gas exit?
41%3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%1–3 years
What if Sanctioned Russian crude floods Asia, global glut?
40%6–18 months
What if Russia delivers a record wheat harvest and floods exports?
39%3–10 years
What if Central Asia pivots westward post-ceasefire?
39%3–10 years
What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
37%1–3 years
What if Eurasian de-escalation revives global risk appetite?
36%6–18 months
What if Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records?
36%6–18 months
What if Western intel warns of a 2027 Russia-NATO window?
35%0–6 months
What if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?
34%3–10 years
What if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?
34%1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
34%0–6 months
What if Russia tightens wheat export quota and floating duty?
33%1–3 years
What if New urea capacity glut crashes global nitrogen prices?
32%3–10 years
What if Permafrost thaw opens new high-latitude cropland?
30%0–6 months
What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?
29%1–3 years
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
28%6–18 months
What if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?
28%1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance dragnet strands 1 mb/d of Russian crude?
28%1–3 years
What if US enrichment build-out under-delivers, deepening SWU squeeze?
27%6–18 months
What if Belarus-Russia potash sanctions re-squeeze world supply?
27%0–6 months
What if the Druzhba pipeline is severed for good?
27%3–10 years
What if Russia's population decline tightens its labor and conscription pool?
27%0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%6–18 months
What if US HALEU shortage stalls advanced-reactor fuel loading?
26%1–3 years
What if Black Sea bumper crop: Russian wheat floods world market?
26%1–3 years
What if Global grain glut: Black Sea + US surplus sinks WHEAT?
25%6–18 months
What if Black Sea export ceiling diverts cargoes and spikes freight?
25%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan's Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor scales up?
24%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%6–18 months
What if Russian enrichment cutoff strands 44% of world SWU capacity?
24%6–18 months
What if US ban on Russian uranium imports tightens enriched supply?
23%6–18 months
What if Russia normalizes fertilizer logistics and exports surge?
22%0–6 months
What if Black Sea sunflower-oil shortfall spikes the vegoil complex?
22%1–3 years
What if Conversion-capacity squeeze spikes UF6 prices to records?
22%6–18 months
What if Hungarian Russian-energy reliance amplifies a gas shock?
22%1–3 years
What if Moldova locks in EU accession?
22%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
21%1–3 years
What if Azerbaijan becomes the EU's strategic gas-diversification partner?
21%0–6 months
What if Sanctions on Russian Nornickel palladium spark supply scare?
20%6–18 months
What if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?
20%6–18 months
What if a snowless winter kills Black Sea wheat?
20%0–6 months
What if a cold snap and supply cuts send European gas soaring?
20%0–6 months
What if Palladium short squeeze on a Russian-supply headline?
20%6–18 months
What if Putin-Trump summit yields a Europe security pact?
20%3–10 years
What if Russia's aging plus war costs strain its pension obligations?
20%6–18 months
What if Tenge slides as oil weakens and the ruble drags it down?
19%6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
19%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan opens a Trans-Caspian bypass route?
19%6–18 months
What if Moscow retaliates for frozen-asset loan?
19%6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%6–18 months
What if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?
19%1–3 years
What if Sanctions partially lifted, Russian gas trickles back?
18%6–18 months
What if Russian and NATO submarines square off under the Arctic ice?
18%6–18 months
What if Baltic hybrid-threat de-escalation accord?
18%6–18 months
What if Brent sinks as a ceasefire restores Russian flows?
18%6–18 months
What if Ceasefire collapses inside six months?
18%6–18 months
What if Global diesel tightness lifts ICE gasoil to a structural premium?
18%6–18 months
What if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?
18%6–18 months
What if Loss of Russian transit via Ukraine tightens European TTF?
18%1–3 years
What if New Baltic LNG and interconnectors end Russia leverage?
18%1–3 years
What if Price-cap removal eases Russian crude back to market?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia fertilizer flows normalize, prices ease?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia's National Wealth Fund buffer runs dry?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia's reintegration eases EM commodity-import costs?
18%6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%6–18 months
What if Russian PGM export ban whipsaws platinum and palladium?
17%1–3 years
What if Arctic Council cooperation resumes, tensions ease?
17%6–18 months
What if a Black Sea drought spikes global wheat prices?
17%6–18 months
What if Central Asian FX tracks ruble weakness in lockstep?
17%1–3 years
What if New START successor revives strategic arms control?
17%6–18 months
What if Remittance and trade shock from Russia hits Central Asia?
17%6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%1–3 years
What if Russian metals re-enter LME after a thaw?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
16%6–18 months
What if Azeri gas re-export of Russian molecules sparks EU scrutiny?
16%0–6 months
What if Black Sea grain corridor fully reopens?
16%6–18 months
What if a renewed Black Sea blockade spikes Chicago wheat above $12 per bushel?
16%1–3 years
What if Moldova energy-secures via EU grid integration?
16%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
16%6–18 months
What if Rosatom fuel sanctions tighten European nuclear supply?
16%6–18 months
What if RUB rallies on ceasefire and sanctions thaw?
16%6–18 months
What if Russia full gas cutoff via Ukraine and TurkStream?
16%0–6 months
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?
16%1–3 years
What if Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe, TTF re-rates lower?
16%6–18 months
What if Sanctions on Russian products tighten the global diesel market?
16%0–6 months
What if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?
16%6–18 months
What if SGC/TANAP expansion lifts Caspian gas to Europe?
16%6–18 months
What if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?
16%1–3 years
What if Yamal LNG stranded as EU ban bites?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%1–3 years
What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?
15%0–6 months
What if Russia halts all wheat exports?
15%0–6 months
What if Russian drone incursions over Poland and Romania?
15%6–18 months
What if Saudi-Russia OPEC+ rift sends Brent into a price war?
15%0–6 months
What if Shadow-fleet tanker spill in the Baltic?
15%1–3 years
What if Turkey becomes Europe's swing gas hub?
15%1–3 years
What if Ukraine transit deal keeps some Russian gas flowing?
14%6–18 months
What if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if Gold breaks out on a Russia-NATO escalation?
14%6–18 months
What if a demand-led oil slump simultaneously squeezed Saudi, UAE, Russian and Nigerian budgets?
14%6–18 months
What if sanctions on Russian and Belarusian potash spike fertilizer prices and cut crop yields?
14%1–3 years
What if Russia walks away from the OPEC+ alliance?
14%6–18 months
What if Russia oil-export disruption tightens the global balance?
14%6–18 months
What if Russia oil price-cap enforcement tightens supply?
14%6–18 months
What if tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap removes barrels and lifts freight costs?
14%6–18 months
What if Russian palladium and nickel export ban hits metals?
14%1–3 years
What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?
14%6–18 months
What if Strikes on Russian crude export terminals spike Brent?
14%6–18 months
What if major exporters cascade wheat export bans and fragment the global market?
13%0–6 months
What if Arctic shadow-fleet collision off Murmansk?
13%6–18 months
What if Belarus deploys Russian nuclear weapons forward?
13%6–18 months
What if Ceasefire-force deployment draws Russian retaliation?
13%6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
13%0–6 months
What if Druzhba pipeline halt cuts crude to Central Europe?
13%0–6 months
What if EUR sells off on a Russia-NATO clash scare?
13%6–18 months
What if European air-defense shortfall exposed by mass strikes?
13%6–18 months
What if Georgia drifts to Moscow, severing a transit link?
13%6–18 months
What if Moldova destabilized by an energy and hybrid squeeze?
13%6–18 months
What if OPEC+ discipline breaks and members ramp output into a price war near $45?
13%6–18 months
What if Putin succession scramble freezes Russian policy?
13%6–18 months
What if Remittance slump from Russia hits Uzbek consumption?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia escalates the war economy and mobilization?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia militarizes the Northern Sea Route?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia probes the Suwalki corridor?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia weaponizes fertilizer and potash exports?
13%6–18 months
What if Russian war economy overheats toward a crisis?
13%6–18 months
What if Transnistria flare-up reopens the Moldova front?
12%6–18 months
What if Cyberattack downs a European power grid node?
12%0–6 months
What if Denmark closes its straits to Russia's shadow fleet?
12%6–18 months
What if Kazakhstan-Russia transit dispute strands oil?
12%0–6 months
What if Kerch bridge strike reopens the southern theater?
12%1–3 years
What if Russia intervenes in Transnistria and threatens Moldova?
12%6–18 months
What if Russia weaponizes CPC access to pressure Astana?
12%6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
12%6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance crackdown strands Russian oil?
12%6–18 months
What if Snapback sanctions deepen after a ceasefire breach?
12%0–6 months
What if sabotage knocks out the TurkStream gas pipeline mid-winter?
11%6–18 months
What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?
11%6–18 months
What if a European diesel crunch spikes freight, farming and heating costs?
11%0–6 months
What if NATO shoots down Russian jets over the Baltic?
11%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure in Russia and Canada?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuke in Ukraine?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia restricts nitrogen, potash and phosphate exports as geopolitical leverage?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia restricts grain and fertilizer exports as geopolitical leverage?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia-NATO clash spikes Brent above $100?
11%6–18 months
What if sanctions enforcement cuts Russian crude exports by 2 million barrels per day?
11%1–3 years
What if tighter enforcement of Russian oil sanctions removes barrels and spikes diesel?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia seizes Narva with 'little green men'?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia stages a false-flag to justify Baltic action?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia tests a nuclear-capable system over the Arctic?
11%6–18 months
What if Russian regime change opens a reform window?
11%1–3 years
What if a nuclear revival drives uranium spot prices to multi-decade highs?
10%6–18 months
What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?
10%0–6 months
What if a grounded ship shuts the Bosphorus to exports?
10%6–18 months
What if cascading diesel-export bans tighten the global middle-distillate market?
10%0–6 months
What if a major producer weaponizes gas or oil exports for geopolitical leverage?
10%1–3 years
What if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?
10%1–3 years
What if a pro-EU revolution prevails in Georgia?
10%0–6 months
What if NATO blockades Russia's shadow oil fleet?
10%6–18 months
What if Naval clash in the Black Sea draws in NATO?
10%6–18 months
What if LME nickel dysfunction prompts structural changes that fragment price discovery?
10%1–3 years
What if Putin's sudden death sparks a struggle over Russia's nukes?
10%6–18 months
What if major refiners restrict diesel and gasoline exports and spike refined-product prices?
10%1–3 years
What if Russia weaponizes its dominant share of global wheat exports?
10%1–3 years
What if comprehensive sanctions on Russian aluminium, nickel and palladium remove major supply?
10%6–18 months
What if lower prices and a tighter price cap compress Russian oil budget revenue and weaken the ruble?
10%1–3 years
What if a lower G7 oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions squeeze Russian export logistics?
10%1–3 years
What if coordinated seizure of Russia's shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics?
10%6–18 months
What if a sustained drone campaign on Russian refineries tightens global diesel and gasoline supply?
10%1–3 years
What if seizing frozen Russian reserves sets a precedent that splinters the reserve system?
10%0–6 months
What if Wheat gaps lower on a surprise corridor deal?
9%0–6 months
What if Russia sinks a NATO-flagged ship in the Black Sea?
9%1–3 years
What if G7 reserve freezes on a major economy prompt reserve managers worldwide to diversify away from seizable assets?
9%6–18 months
What if NATO-Russia Article 5 invocation?
9%6–18 months
What if a renewed Saudi-Russia quota split triggers a competitive supply surge that collapses prices?
9%1–3 years
What if Russian troops cross into Poland and trigger Article 5?
9%6–18 months
What if a flood or strike at a major potash mine tightens global supply and spikes fertilizer prices?
9%6–18 months
What if an oil drop and sanctions tightening push the ruble into emergency rate hike territory?
9%6–18 months
What if Russia sanctions extend to palladium and nickel and tighten battery-metal markets?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russia-NATO incident raises European war-risk premia and energy prices?
9%1–3 years
What if a multi-year oil and sanctions squeeze depletes Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund?
9%6–18 months
What if sanctions on Russian palladium spike autocatalyst costs for automakers?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russian fertilizer-export curb and a Ukrainian grain-corridor collapse hit simultaneously?
9%6–18 months
What if Russia completely halts gas supplies to the EU and TTF surges to EUR 180?
9%0–6 months
What if remaining Russian pipeline and LNG flows to Europe are fully severed?
9%1–3 years
What if the loss of cheap Russian gas locks Europe into a structurally higher energy cost regime?
9%6–18 months
What if renewed Black Sea disruption removes Ukrainian sunflower oil and spikes vegetable-oil prices?
9%1–3 years
What if sanctions disrupt Western nuclear-fuel supply from Russia?
8%1–3 years
What if disruption to the CPC pipeline removes 1.5 million barrels per day of Kazakh crude?
8%1–3 years
What if China and Russia complete a full shift to yuan and rouble trade settlement?
8%6–18 months
What if Europe's dependence on long-haul diesel imports keeps middle-distillate prices structurally elevated?
8%0–6 months
What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
8%0–6 months
What if attacks or sanctions disrupt Russian Baltic crude terminals and tighten Atlantic supply?
8%1–3 years
What if the West confiscates frozen Russian central-bank assets and accelerates EM reserve de-Westernization?
8%6–18 months
What if Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe and forces full LNG pricing?
8%0–6 months
What if Russia bans palladium exports in retaliation?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
8%1–3 years
What if Russia militarizes Svalbard and tests Norway's NATO guarantee?
8%0–6 months
What if Turkey halts tanker traffic through the Bosphorus?
7%0–6 months
What if an unplanned Norwegian or Algerian gas outage spikes European prices?
7%0–6 months
What if Russian jets shoot down a NATO aircraft over the Baltic?
7%0–6 months
What if a chip-grade neon gas shortage halts lithography?
7%1–3 years
What if a missile on NATO soil triggers Article 5?
7%1–3 years
What if petrostates spend reserves defending currency pegs and drain the Treasury buyer pool?
7%0–6 months
What if Russia-NATO escalation spikes Brent above $130 and lifts European gas alongside it?
7%1–3 years
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
6%0–6 months
What if Russian and NATO forces trade fire at Estonia's border?
6%1–3 years
What if Russia grabs the Suwalki corridor to reach Kaliningrad?
6%1–3 years
What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?