Russia — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Russia and its globally‑connected markets.
218 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
51%6–18 months
What if Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprint?
46%0–6 months
What if drone strikes cripple a fifth of Russia's refining?
46%3–10 years
What if Middle Corridor scales as a Russia-bypass artery?
45%6–18 months
What if EU bans Russian LNG, JKM and TTF tighten?
45%3–10 years
What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
45%3–10 years
What if EU energy independence from Russia is completed?
42%1–3 years
What if US LNG glut offsets the Russian-gas exit?
41%1–3 years
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
41%3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%1–3 years
What if Sanctioned Russian crude floods Asia, global glut?
40%3–10 years
What if Comprehensive sanctions relief reopens Russia to trade?
40%6–18 months
What if Russia delivers a record wheat harvest and floods exports?
39%3–10 years
What if Central Asia pivots westward post-ceasefire?
37%1–3 years
What if Eurasian de-escalation revives global risk appetite?
36%6–18 months
What if Western intel warns of a 2027 Russia-NATO window?
36%6–18 months
What if Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records?
35%0–6 months
What if Russian refinery-strike wave lifts diesel cracks?
34%3–10 years
What if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?
34%1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
34%0–6 months
What if Russia tightens wheat export quota and floating duty?
33%1–3 years
What if New urea capacity glut crashes global nitrogen prices?
30%0–6 months
What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?
30%3–10 years
What if Permafrost thaw opens new high-latitude cropland?
29%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
28%6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%6–18 months
What if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?
28%1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance dragnet strands 1 mb/d of Russian crude?
28%6–18 months
What if Russian enrichment cutoff strands 44% of world SWU capacity?
28%6–18 months
What if US HALEU shortage stalls advanced-reactor fuel loading?
28%1–3 years
What if US enrichment build-out under-delivers, deepening SWU squeeze?
27%0–6 months
What if the Druzhba pipeline is severed for good?
27%0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%6–18 months
What if Belarus-Russia potash sanctions re-squeeze world supply?
27%3–10 years
What if Russia's population decline tightens its labor and conscription pool?
26%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan's Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor scales up?
26%1–3 years
What if Global grain glut: Black Sea + US surplus sinks WHEAT?
26%1–3 years
What if Black Sea bumper crop: Russian wheat floods world market?
25%6–18 months
What if Black Sea export ceiling diverts cargoes and spikes freight?
24%6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%6–18 months
What if US ban on Russian uranium imports tightens enriched supply?
23%0–6 months
What if Black Sea sunflower-oil shortfall spikes the vegoil complex?
23%6–18 months
What if Russia normalizes fertilizer logistics and exports surge?
22%1–3 years
What if Moldova locks in EU accession?
22%6–18 months
What if Hungarian Russian-energy reliance amplifies a gas shock?
21%1–3 years
What if Azerbaijan becomes the EU's strategic gas-diversification partner?
21%0–6 months
What if Sanctions on Russian Nornickel palladium spark supply scare?
21%1–3 years
What if Conversion-capacity squeeze spikes UF6 prices to records?
20%0–6 months
What if a cold snap and supply cuts send European gas soaring?
20%6–18 months
What if a snowless winter kills Black Sea wheat?
20%6–18 months
What if Tenge slides as oil weakens and the ruble drags it down?
20%0–6 months
What if Palladium short squeeze on a Russian-supply headline?
20%3–10 years
What if Russia's aging plus war costs strain its pension obligations?
19%6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%6–18 months
What if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?
19%6–18 months
What if Moscow retaliates for frozen-asset loan?
19%1–3 years
What if Sanctions partially lifted, Russian gas trickles back?
19%1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan opens a Trans-Caspian bypass route?
18%6–18 months
What if Russian and NATO submarines square off under the Arctic ice?
18%6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%6–18 months
What if Ceasefire collapses inside six months?
18%6–18 months
What if Baltic hybrid-threat de-escalation accord?
18%6–18 months
What if Putin-Trump summit yields a Europe security pact?
18%6–18 months
What if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?
18%6–18 months
What if Brent sinks as a ceasefire restores Russian flows?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia fertilizer flows normalize, prices ease?
18%1–3 years
What if New Baltic LNG and interconnectors end Russia leverage?
18%1–3 years
What if Price-cap removal eases Russian crude back to market?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia's National Wealth Fund buffer runs dry?
18%1–3 years
What if Russia's reintegration eases EM commodity-import costs?
18%6–18 months
What if Loss of Russian transit via Ukraine tightens European TTF?
18%6–18 months
What if Global diesel tightness lifts ICE gasoil to a structural premium?
18%6–18 months
What if Russian PGM export ban whipsaws platinum and palladium?
18%6–18 months
What if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?
17%6–18 months
What if a Black Sea drought spikes global wheat prices?
17%6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%1–3 years
What if Arctic Council cooperation resumes, tensions ease?
17%1–3 years
What if Russian metals re-enter LME after a thaw?
17%1–3 years
What if New START successor revives strategic arms control?
17%6–18 months
What if Central Asian FX tracks ruble weakness in lockstep?
17%6–18 months
What if Remittance and trade shock from Russia hits Central Asia?
16%0–6 months
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?
16%0–6 months
What if the US hits major Chinese banks with secondary sanctions?
16%6–18 months
What if a renewed Black Sea blockade spikes Chicago wheat above $12 per bushel?
16%0–6 months
What if Black Sea grain corridor fully reopens?
16%6–18 months
What if RUB rallies on ceasefire and sanctions thaw?
16%1–3 years
What if Yamal LNG stranded as EU ban bites?
16%6–18 months
What if SGC/TANAP expansion lifts Caspian gas to Europe?
16%6–18 months
What if Ukraine deep-strikes Russia's energy heartland?
16%6–18 months
What if Russia full gas cutoff via Ukraine and TurkStream?
16%1–3 years
What if Moldova energy-secures via EU grid integration?
16%6–18 months
What if Azeri gas re-export of Russian molecules sparks EU scrutiny?
16%1–3 years
What if Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe, TTF re-rates lower?
16%6–18 months
What if Sanctions on Russian products tighten the global diesel market?
15%0–6 months
What if Russia halts all wheat exports?
15%1–3 years
What if Russia transfers SSBN missile-sub tech to North Korea?
15%1–3 years
What if North Korea joins a China-Russia bloc in a formal trilateral pact?
15%0–6 months
What if Shadow-fleet tanker spill in the Baltic?
15%0–6 months
What if Russian drone incursions over Poland and Romania?
15%1–3 years
What if Ukraine transit deal keeps some Russian gas flowing?
15%1–3 years
What if Turkey becomes Europe's swing gas hub?
15%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
15%6–18 months
What if Saudi-Russia OPEC+ rift sends Brent into a price war?
14%1–3 years
What if Russia walks away from the OPEC+ alliance?
14%6–18 months
What if a demand-led oil slump simultaneously squeezed Saudi, UAE, Russian and Nigerian budgets?
14%6–18 months
What if major exporters cascade wheat export bans and fragment the global market?
14%6–18 months
What if sanctions on Russian and Belarusian potash spike fertilizer prices and cut crop yields?
14%6–18 months
What if tightened enforcement of the G7 Russian oil price cap removes barrels and lifts freight costs?
14%6–18 months
What if Strikes on Russian crude export terminals spike Brent?
14%1–3 years
What if Secondary-sanctions wave on Russia oil buyers?
14%6–18 months
What if China-Russia Arctic axis deepens?
14%6–18 months
What if Gold breaks out on a Russia-NATO escalation?
14%6–18 months
What if Russian palladium and nickel export ban hits metals?
14%6–18 months
What if Russia oil price-cap enforcement tightens supply?
14%6–18 months
What if Rosatom fuel sanctions tighten European nuclear supply?
14%6–18 months
What if China brokers a Ukraine ceasefire framework?
14%6–18 months
What if Russia oil-export disruption tightens the global balance?
13%6–18 months
What if OPEC+ discipline breaks and members ramp output into a price war near $45?
13%3–10 years
What if thawing permafrost destabilizes Arctic infrastructure in Russia and Canada?
13%6–18 months
What if Putin succession scramble freezes Russian policy?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia probes the Suwalki corridor?
13%6–18 months
What if Transnistria flare-up reopens the Moldova front?
13%0–6 months
What if EUR sells off on a Russia-NATO clash scare?
13%0–6 months
What if Arctic shadow-fleet collision off Murmansk?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia militarizes the Northern Sea Route?
13%6–18 months
What if Georgia drifts to Moscow, severing a transit link?
13%0–6 months
What if Druzhba pipeline halt cuts crude to Central Europe?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia weaponizes fertilizer and potash exports?
13%6–18 months
What if Ceasefire-force deployment draws Russian retaliation?
13%6–18 months
What if Belarus deploys Russian nuclear weapons forward?
13%6–18 months
What if Russia escalates the war economy and mobilization?
13%6–18 months
What if Russian war economy overheats toward a crisis?
13%6–18 months
What if Moldova destabilized by an energy and hybrid squeeze?
13%6–18 months
What if European air-defense shortfall exposed by mass strikes?
13%6–18 months
What if China deepens military-industrial backing of Russia?
13%6–18 months
What if Remittance slump from Russia hits Uzbek consumption?
12%0–6 months
What if Denmark closes its straits to Russia's shadow fleet?
12%0–6 months
What if sabotage knocks out the TurkStream gas pipeline mid-winter?
12%1–3 years
What if Russia intervenes in Transnistria and threatens Moldova?
12%6–18 months
What if a secondary-sanctions crackdown on Russian and Iranian oil disrupts payments and shipping?
12%0–6 months
What if Kerch bridge strike reopens the southern theater?
12%6–18 months
What if Cyberattack downs a European power grid node?
12%6–18 months
What if Kazakhstan-Russia transit dispute strands oil?
12%6–18 months
What if Snapback sanctions deepen after a ceasefire breach?
12%6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance crackdown strands Russian oil?
12%6–18 months
What if Russia weaponizes CPC access to pressure Astana?
11%6–18 months
What if a European diesel crunch spikes freight, farming and heating costs?
11%6–18 months
What if sanctions enforcement cuts Russian crude exports by 2 million barrels per day?
11%1–3 years
What if a nuclear revival drives uranium spot prices to multi-decade highs?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia restricts grain and fertilizer exports as geopolitical leverage?
11%1–3 years
What if tighter enforcement of Russian oil sanctions removes barrels and spikes diesel?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia restricts nitrogen, potash and phosphate exports as geopolitical leverage?
11%6–18 months
What if Washington threatens secondary sanctions on Chinese banks aiding Russia's war economy?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuke in Ukraine?
11%6–18 months
What if Russian regime change opens a reform window?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia seizes Narva with 'little green men'?
11%0–6 months
What if NATO shoots down Russian jets over the Baltic?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia tests a nuclear-capable system over the Arctic?
11%6–18 months
What if Russia stages a false-flag to justify Baltic action?
10%1–3 years
What if Putin's sudden death sparks a struggle over Russia's nukes?
10%6–18 months
What if Azerbaijan seizes the Zangezur corridor by force?
10%0–6 months
What if a grounded ship shuts the Bosphorus to exports?
10%0–6 months
What if NATO blockades Russia's shadow oil fleet?
10%1–3 years
What if a pro-EU revolution prevails in Georgia?
10%6–18 months
What if a sustained drone campaign on Russian refineries tightens global diesel and gasoline supply?
10%1–3 years
What if a lower G7 oil price cap and shadow-fleet sanctions squeeze Russian export logistics?
10%6–18 months
What if lower prices and a tighter price cap compress Russian oil budget revenue and weaken the ruble?
10%1–3 years
What if coordinated seizure of Russia's shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics?
10%6–18 months
What if cascading diesel-export bans tighten the global middle-distillate market?
10%1–3 years
What if comprehensive sanctions on Russian aluminium, nickel and palladium remove major supply?
10%6–18 months
What if LME nickel dysfunction prompts structural changes that fragment price discovery?
10%1–3 years
What if Russia weaponizes its dominant share of global wheat exports?
10%1–3 years
What if seizing frozen Russian reserves sets a precedent that splinters the reserve system?
10%0–6 months
What if a major producer weaponizes gas or oil exports for geopolitical leverage?
10%1–3 years
What if restrictions on nitrogen and potash exports spike fertilizer prices and trigger a global food-inflation shock?
10%6–18 months
What if major refiners restrict diesel and gasoline exports and spike refined-product prices?
10%6–18 months
What if Russia-NATO clash spikes Brent above $100?
10%0–6 months
What if Wheat gaps lower on a surprise corridor deal?
10%6–18 months
What if Naval clash in the Black Sea draws in NATO?
9%1–3 years
What if Russian troops cross into Poland and trigger Article 5?
9%0–6 months
What if Russia sinks a NATO-flagged ship in the Black Sea?
9%6–18 months
What if Russia completely halts gas supplies to the EU and TTF surges to EUR 180?
9%1–3 years
What if the loss of cheap Russian gas locks Europe into a structurally higher energy cost regime?
9%6–18 months
What if an oil drop and sanctions tightening push the ruble into emergency rate hike territory?
9%6–18 months
What if Russia sanctions extend to palladium and nickel and tighten battery-metal markets?
9%6–18 months
What if a renewed Saudi-Russia quota split triggers a competitive supply surge that collapses prices?
9%1–3 years
What if a multi-year oil and sanctions squeeze depletes Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund?
9%6–18 months
What if renewed Black Sea disruption removes Ukrainian sunflower oil and spikes vegetable-oil prices?
9%6–18 months
What if a flood or strike at a major potash mine tightens global supply and spikes fertilizer prices?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russian fertilizer-export curb and a Ukrainian grain-corridor collapse hit simultaneously?
9%6–18 months
What if sanctions on Russian palladium spike autocatalyst costs for automakers?
9%1–3 years
What if G7 reserve freezes on a major economy prompt reserve managers worldwide to diversify away from seizable assets?
9%6–18 months
What if a Russia-NATO incident raises European war-risk premia and energy prices?
9%0–6 months
What if remaining Russian pipeline and LNG flows to Europe are fully severed?
9%1–3 years
What if sanctions disrupt Western nuclear-fuel supply from Russia?
9%6–18 months
What if NATO-Russia Article 5 invocation?
8%0–6 months
What if Turkey halts tanker traffic through the Bosphorus?
8%0–6 months
What if Russia bans palladium exports in retaliation?
8%1–3 years
What if Russia militarizes Svalbard and tests Norway's NATO guarantee?
8%6–18 months
What if Europe's dependence on long-haul diesel imports keeps middle-distillate prices structurally elevated?
8%6–18 months
What if Russia halts all remaining pipeline gas to Europe and forces full LNG pricing?
8%1–3 years
What if disruption to the CPC pipeline removes 1.5 million barrels per day of Kazakh crude?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
8%1–3 years
What if China and Russia complete a full shift to yuan and rouble trade settlement?
8%1–3 years
What if the West confiscates frozen Russian central-bank assets and accelerates EM reserve de-Westernization?
7%1–3 years
What if a missile on NATO soil triggers Article 5?
7%0–6 months
What if a Power of Siberia rupture halts Russian gas to China?
7%0–6 months
What if Russian jets shoot down a NATO aircraft over the Baltic?
7%1–3 years
What if Russia detonates a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
7%0–6 months
What if a chip-grade neon gas shortage halts lithography?
7%0–6 months
What if attacks or sanctions disrupt Russian Baltic crude terminals and tighten Atlantic supply?
7%1–3 years
What if petrostates spend reserves defending currency pegs and drain the Treasury buyer pool?
6%1–3 years
What if Russia grabs the Suwalki corridor to reach Kaliningrad?
6%0–6 months
What if Russian and NATO forces trade fire at Estonia's border?
6%0–6 months
What if Russia-NATO escalation spikes Brent above $130 and lifts European gas alongside it?
6%0–6 months
What if an unplanned Norwegian or Algerian gas outage spikes European prices?
6%1–3 years
What if a Taiwan conflict prompts G7 sanctions on China and Chinese counter-sanctions?