What if the Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 8%?
Per the BoE 2025 BCST path, entrenched inflation forces Bank Rate to 8%, the highest since 1998, crushing rate-sensitive demand and revaluing UK fixed income violently.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Per the BoE 2025 BCST path, entrenched inflation forces Bank Rate to 8%, the highest since 1998, crushing rate-sensitive demand and revaluing UK fixed income violently. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.58–-0.57% · other way +13.02% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.52–-0.53% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.79–-0.05% · other way +6.25% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.41–-0.5% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -4.63–+0.94% · other way +0.5% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -6.89–+1.47% · other way +5.28% (n=11) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.19–+2.06% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.57–+0.07% · other way +2.3% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +11bp hist +1.81–+9.23% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.86–+2.81% · other way +11.19% (n=9) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist +1.28–+9.71% · other way +6.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–+0.83% · other way -0.84% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.86–-0.16% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -5.7% | 71% | 24 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 36 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -6.6% | 63% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -5.3% | 63% | 32 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +1.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 37 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +5bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 31 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |