What if Bond-vigilante revolt: deficits punished with a buyers' strike?
Investors stage a buyers' strike against profligate sovereigns, forcing yields sharply higher and a fiscal rethink, with the inflation-risk premium widening.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Investors stage a buyers' strike against profligate sovereigns, forcing yields sharply higher and a fiscal rethink, with the inflation-risk premium widening. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.