What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?
Brazil redirecting all soy to China and tariffing US ethanol/tech is bullish CBOT soybeans on US export displacement and a relative win for Chinese crushers, so the directional read is agri, not a generic Nasdaq selloff. Rhymes with 2018 when China's retaliatory soy tariff handed Brazil record share and US farm-belt pain. China is the swing soy buyer; the china_growth +0.3 here is questionable - the shock helps Chinese feed costs but US soy/ethanol is the real loser, so the cascade is mislabeled.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Brazil hikes tariffs on US ethanol and tech after Washington levies, redirecting soy exports entirely to China. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.27–-0.42% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.07–-0.47% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.0–-0.36% · other way +2.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–-0.39% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.74–+0.06% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.78–-0.43% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.58–-0.28% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.32–+1.84% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.92–+0.08% · other way +4.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.9–+0.94% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.66–+0.6% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.96–-0.08% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.18–+0.81% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -7.09–+0.61% · other way -3.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.7% | 75% | 35 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 34 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.2% | 68% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Brazil soy-to-China pivot already structurally underway; full retaliation over 18mo moderately likely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.