What if Brazil pivots its soy exports entirely to China?
Brazil redirecting all soy to China and tariffing US ethanol/tech is bullish CBOT soybeans on US export displacement and a relative win for Chinese crushers, so the directional read is agri, not a generic Nasdaq selloff. Rhymes with 2018 when China's retaliatory soy tariff handed Brazil record share and US farm-belt pain. China is the swing soy buyer; the china_growth +0.3 here is questionable - the shock helps Chinese feed costs but US soy/ethanol is the real loser, so the cascade is mislabeled.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Brazil hikes tariffs on US ethanol and tech after Washington levies, redirecting soy exports entirely to China. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.