What if a dollar crisis forces a new Bretton Woods reset?
A dollar-confidence break sends real money out of the long end first: the 30y cheapens faster than the 10y (bear-steepener) while gold and BTC bid as non-sovereign reserves and DXY slips. Rhymes with the 1971 Nixon-shock/Smithsonian breakdown and Aug-2011 US downgrade, both of which lifted gold and pressured the long bond. Novel angle: with foreign official holdings already shrinking and stablecoins absorbing T-bill demand, a reset today would hit the belly less and the 30y/gold more than in 1971.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Bretton-Woods-style monetary reset is convened amid a dollar-confidence crisis. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +5.7% hist -0.7–+10.3% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.2% hist +0.76–+3.58% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.7% hist -0.68–+8.36% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +3.1% hist -3.67–+2.31% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% hist -4.22–+15.47% · other way +21.23% (n=12) |
| 6 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.23–-0.6% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.09–-0.5% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.25–+1.66% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.5–+1.1% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.9–-0.47% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +14bp hist +3.39–+12.43% · other way +12.4% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +12bp hist +2.66–+10.94% · other way +12.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.4–+0.84% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -7.73–+1.84% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the measured TRY short: clean Russia/Ukraine sanction analogues (2022-23) reliably crushed the lira in confidence crises; the cascade's long over-reaches. ETH and AVGO histories are FTX-contaminated and AI-capex-swamped — trust the cascade there.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 25 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +13.2% · 5d +3.0% | 68% | 17 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 25 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.9% | 71% | 20 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.9% · 5d +5.2% | 67% | 27 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 24 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 25 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.9% | 65% | 23 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.9% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 25 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 24 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 30 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Bretton-Woods reset is unprecedented; analogues are generic stress, not monetary resets; dollar still dominant. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.