What if Broad EM disinflation plus a soft dollar delivers a goldilocks-EM regime?
Simultaneous EM disinflation and dollar weakness produce an ideal backdrop of falling yields, appreciating currencies and steady inflows across the asset class.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Simultaneous EM disinflation and dollar weakness produce an ideal backdrop of falling yields, appreciating currencies and steady inflows across the asset class. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.3% hist -5.96–+1.49% · other way +0.8% (n=3) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.58–+0.56% · other way +0.78% (n=3) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -8.67–+2.38% · other way +9.01% (n=3) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.1–+0.67% · other way +6.56% (n=2) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.16–+0.53% · other way -1.63% (n=7) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.32–+0.14% · other way +0.45% (n=3) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.78–+5.02% · other way +2.36% (n=2) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.76–+2.01% · other way +4.8% (n=2) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.06% · other way -0.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.56–+0.59% · other way +0.6% (n=3) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.82–+0.39% · other way -0.39% (n=3) |
| 13 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.65–+1.56% · other way +5.31% (n=6) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.0–+0.6% · other way -2.74% (n=3) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 80% | 20 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 74% | 19 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.4% | 72% | 32 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -5.7% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -0.4% | 70% | 20 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -0.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 20 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.9% · 5d -4.8% | 68% | 22 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 20 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 20 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 20 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -1bp | 66% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -4.2% | 63% | 32 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -2bp | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |