What if Britain's buy-to-let landlords head for the exit?
Tax-driven UK buy-to-let exits flood stock and compress rental-REIT NAVs; trade short UK residential REITs and watch HY/financials, a continuation of the Section-24 mortgage-interest-relief withdrawal that has steadily shrunk the BTL base since 2017. Transmission is domestic landlord-to-tenant and bank mortgage books, contained from global markets. Forward angle: higher-for-longer gilt yields turn a slow structural exit into a faster forced one, but this is a UK micro story — the global crypto cascade is largely noise.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Tax and regulation drive UK buy-to-let landlords to sell, flooding the market and crushing rental REITs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.