What if UK mortgage reset squeezes households as cheap fixes roll off?
Millions of UK households roll off ultra-low fixed-rate mortgages onto far higher rates, compressing disposable income and softening home prices; the payment shock dents consumer demand and pressures UK housebuilders and lenders.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Millions of UK households roll off ultra-low fixed-rate mortgages onto far higher rates, compressing disposable income and softening home prices; the payment shock dents consumer demand and pressures UK housebuilders and lenders. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.