What if anti-immigration race riots resurge across English cities?
Resurgent UK race riots are a sterling-dip and insurer-claims trade: spreading anti-immigration unrest nicks cable and lifts property/casualty claims (Aviva, Direct Line), with a tourism-confidence drag. Direct analogue is the Aug-2024 Southport-sparked riots and the Aug-2011 England riots (~GBP500m insured losses, limited and brief market impact). The transmission is UK-domestic risk premium and insurance, not the US-tech and crypto cascade attached here.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Coordinated anti-immigration riots spread across English cities, sterling dips and insurer claims spike. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.