What if Reform UK wins the most seats in the Commons?
Reform UK as largest party prices unfunded tax cuts and a BoE clash — gilts sell off, sterling drops, and the long end steepens on a fiscal-credibility premium. The direct rhyme is the September-2022 Truss mini-budget: 30y gilt yields spiked ~100bp+, GBP hit record lows, and the BoE intervened on LDI. Forward angle: post-2022 LDI buffers are larger, so the pension-margin-call amplification should be smaller, but the term-premium repricing is the same trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Reform UK wins most Commons seats, gilts sell off as markets price unfunded tax cuts and BoE clash. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -7.29–+1.59% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.79–+0.71% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.26% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.8–+2.41% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–-0.06% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.3–+1.76% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.84–+3.15% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.12% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+0.79% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.71% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.16–-0.09% · other way -0.53% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.48–+1.53% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.13–+0.17% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade-short on SOL: only 8 analogues, +19.9% driven by a 2021-22 alt-season regime (lira/Fed windows), not a UK-gilt selloff; the sample is thin and regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -7.5% | 65% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.6% | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -5.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +0.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Reform UK leads polls; most-seats plurality plausible but next general election timing limits 1-3y odds. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.