What if an insurgent assault shutters Mozambique's LNG again?
Overrunning Afungi and re-shuttering Mozambique LNG removes ~13mtpa of future supply, so the clean trade is European TTF/JKM gas, not the gold-and-equity wobble shown. Rhymes with TotalEnergies' 2021 force-majeure after the Palma attack, which durably delayed the project and tightened the late-2020s LNG balance. Transmission: Mozambique was slated to feed Europe's post-Russia gas gap, so the buyers hurt are EU/Asian importers; Total and Asian offtakers wear it. Forward: with US LNG ramping, the spot hit is now smaller than in 2021-2022.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major insurgent assault overruns Afungi, forcing TotalEnergies to re-declare force majeure and indefinitely re-suspend the restarted Mozambique LNG project. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.