What if French political gridlock and fiscal slippage trigger a sharp CAC 40 de-rating?
French equities de-rate as political gridlock, fiscal slippage and a widening OAT spread raise the country risk premium, hitting French banks and domestically exposed names.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. French equities de-rate as political gridlock, fiscal slippage and a widening OAT spread raise the country risk premium, hitting French banks and domestically exposed names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.5% hist -0.45–+7.36% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.59–-0.77% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.39–+0.05% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.12–+0.72% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.74–-0.06% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.99–+0.16% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.15–-0.11% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -6.91–+2.64% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -10.83–+5.2% · other way +6.3% (n=11) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.8–+1.69% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.08–+0.01% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -6.96–+15.74% · other way +20.49% (n=11) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.19–+1.4% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +15.3% · 5d +8.8% | 88% | 8 | 0.64 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 68% | 25 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.3% | 73% | 11 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.4% | 68% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 66% | 35 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 16 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +4.3% | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |