What if Canadian alternative mortgage lenders face mounting defaults as the renewal wall and prices collide?
Canadian alternative and private mortgage lenders that absorbed borrowers failing the OSFI B-20 stress test face mounting defaults and funding withdrawal as the renewal wall and price decline hit.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Canadian alternative and private mortgage lenders that absorbed borrowers failing the OSFI B-20 stress test face mounting defaults and funding withdrawal as the renewal wall and price decline hit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Mortgage rates ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.