What if wholesale-funding stress and widening covered-bond spreads squeeze Canada's Big Six banks?
Wholesale-funding stress and covered-bond spread widening hit Big Six banks reliant on offshore funding, tightening domestic credit as OSFI monitors liquidity-coverage buffers.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Wholesale-funding stress and covered-bond spread widening hit Big Six banks reliant on offshore funding, tightening domestic credit as OSFI monitors liquidity-coverage buffers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.