What if the Bank of Canada cuts far below the Fed and sinks the loonie?
BoC easing aggressively while the Fed holds blows out 2y differentials and pushes USDCAD past 1.50: the trade is short CAD on the rate gap, with the loonie the cleanest expression and a softer DXY-ex-CAD risk-on impulse. Rhymes with the 2014-15 BoC surprise cuts that drove CAD weakness as oil and the Fed diverged. Canada exports energy/autos to the US; a weak loonie cushions exporters but imports inflation. Forward: USMCA tariff overhang means CAD weakness could overshoot the rate gap.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The Bank of Canada eases aggressively while the Fed holds, blowing out rate differentials and crushing the loonie past 1.50. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.