What if global crude slumps toward $40 and the Western Canadian Select discount widens sharply?
A global crude slump toward USD 40 widens the Western Canadian Select discount and slashes oil-sands cash flow, driving Alberta energy-sector defaults into Big Six and regional loan books.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global crude slump toward USD 40 widens the Western Canadian Select discount and slashes oil-sands cash flow, driving Alberta energy-sector defaults into Big Six and regional loan books. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.13–-0.4% · other way -0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -4.07–+0.14% · other way -0.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.11–-0.04% · other way +1.32% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -2.17–+6.2% · other way +8.63% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.64–+0.02% · other way +0.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.64–+0.09% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.34–+5.42% · other way +6.81% (n=11) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–+0.07% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.39–+0.17% · other way +0.88% (n=11) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–+0.59% · other way +10.95% (n=11) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.42–+1.28% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.05–+0.34% · other way +1.92% (n=11) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.38–-0.01% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -5.48–+0.08% · other way +21.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.1% | 66% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 23 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.8% | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -9.4% | 61% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |