What if repeated failure to expand Canadian pipeline capacity strands incremental oil-sands output?
Repeated failure to expand pipeline capacity strands incremental Alberta oil-sands output, capping production, widening differentials and impairing producer credit over the medium term.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Repeated failure to expand pipeline capacity strands incremental Alberta oil-sands output, capping production, widening differentials and impairing producer credit over the medium term. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.14–+1.27% · other way -2.87% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.29–+1.16% · other way -3.29% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.08–+1.46% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.24–+1.42% · other way +9.0% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.23–+1.42% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.01–+0.86% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.05–+1.95% · other way +6.51% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.65–+4.66% · other way +25.14% (n=11) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–+0.02% · other way -0.27% (n=11) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+0.18% · other way +0.42% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.0% · other way +0.46% (n=11) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.49–+2.03% · other way -8.34% (n=11) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.26% · other way +6.87% (n=9) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.23–+1.29% · other way -1.3% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +1.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +5bp | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 33 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -8.7% | 54% | 24 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.3% | 53% | 32 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 46% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |