What if Capex-led non-inflationary boom: investment surge lifts supply?
A broad capital-spending surge in energy, chips and grid expands productive capacity, lifting growth while easing supply bottlenecks and capping inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A broad capital-spending surge in energy, chips and grid expands productive capacity, lifting growth while easing supply bottlenecks and capping inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -6.26–+20.77% · other way -2.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -9.36–+2.12% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.95–+3.23% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.21–+0.38% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.08–+0.46% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.51–+2.6% · other way +0.61% (n=10) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.12–+0.49% · other way +3.85% (n=12) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.44–+0.52% · other way -2.21% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.37–+1.48% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.52–+3.68% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.42–+0.35% · other way +8.54% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.22% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.14–+1.19% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -7.4% | 71% | 36 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.7% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +18.5% · 5d +0.7% | 61% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 38 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 55% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |