What if Capex-light AI software re-rates over hardware on margins?
Investors reward asset-light AI application and software firms with high incremental margins over capital-intensive hardware names. The leadership rotation rewards profitability and supports risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Investors reward asset-light AI application and software firms with high incremental margins over capital-intensive hardware names. The leadership rotation rewards profitability and supports risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.28–+0.76% · other way +0.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.36–+2.5% · other way +10.23% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.28–+0.82% · other way +1.68% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -4.36–+12.37% · other way -2.68% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -19.59–-0.51% · other way +22.56% (n=6) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.18–+0.45% · other way +1.02% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.99–+2.34% · other way +4.57% (n=7) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.71–+0.75% · other way +7.67% (n=12) |
| 10 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.21–+0.46% · other way +3.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.26–+1.42% · other way -1.64% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.19–+1.15% · other way +5.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.01–+0.8% · other way +0.55% (n=7) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.65–+2.08% · other way +2.76% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.3% · 5d -6.7% | 95% | 18 | 0.62 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 24 | 0.31 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.6% | 66% | 23 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 23 | 0.23 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 23 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 24 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.2% · 5d +1.1% | 57% | 23 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 23 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 24 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 23 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.3% | 56% | 24 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 58% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d -1bp | 55% | 24 | 0.07 | · |