What if capital flight overwhelms China's controls and drains FX reserves?
Accelerating capital flight through trade mis-invoicing, southbound flows and crypto channels overwhelms the capital account, draining reserves and forcing the PBoC into aggressive outflow controls.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerating capital flight through trade mis-invoicing, southbound flows and crypto channels overwhelms the capital account, draining reserves and forcing the PBoC into aggressive outflow controls. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.76–-0.36% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.61–-0.27% · other way -0.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.62–-0.12% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.35–+1.23% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–-0.04% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.11% · other way +2.36% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.06–+0.39% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.04% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.98–+0.48% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.76–+1.07% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.07% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 12 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.18–+0.64% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.01% · other way -0.87% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.52–+1.31% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -4.5% | 63% | 32 | 0.19 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.7% | 61% | 32 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 32 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 54% | 32 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.8% | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |